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the contracting Powers concerned; but I doubt whether discussions
initiated between so many Powers at one and the same time would be speedy or successful. If, however, Great Britain, Japan,
the United States and France could agree on a common policy,then
their joint influence would probably obtain ready acquiescence
from the other Fowers, whose interests in China are much less
considerable.
21.
Chinese affairs are, of course, vitally important
to Japan, and I would refer in this connection to my secret despatch of the 12th May in which I drew your attention to the view of Marshal Wu P'ei-fu that Japan is just as much responsible for the anti-British campaign in Canton as Russia, that it is Japan's desire to cripple Hong Kong as a counter-blow to our Singapore naval base scheme, and that it is Japan's policy to continue to foment civil war in China, so as to render any and every government of that country unstable. I believe, however, that Japanese antagonism to british interests in China would completely vanish and that relations between purselves and Japan would again be as cordial as in the days of the Anglo-Japanese alliance, if only His Majesty's Goverment in concert with the Government of the United States of America would agree to the recognition of southern Manchuria as a Japanese sphere of influence, for the development of which (subject to the maintenance of the "open doer") we were prepared to give Japan a free hand. If Great Britain, Japan and the United States of America were united in their Chinese policy, this would go far to remove the troubles from which all three nations now suffer in China, and it would enable us to speak with such authority to the War Lords at the head of the variona Chinese regional groups that the comerce of our nationals would be greatly facilitated and that Bolshevism would no longer be a serious threat.
22+
The only administrative organization which still holds the Eighteen Provinces together is the Chinese Maritime
Customs
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